Given the Central Bank's continuing tough stance on the key rate, which if reduced, will not be soon and not by much, the economy in 2025 may face not a soft landing, but a rather sharp and deep decline, says the deputy chairman of the board of PJSC RosDorBank. This will lead to a decrease in supply - a pro-inflationary factor.
"With the very likely continuation of all the above-mentioned cost inflation factors, the economy may find itself in conditions of long-forgotten stagflation - high inflation with a simultaneous economic downturn. This means that neither in the short term of the first quarter, nor in the medium term until the end of the year, should we expect a significant slowdown in inflation," the expert sums up.
The only factor that will save the Russian economy in 2025
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"Inflation expectations remain high, unfortunately. All henan mobile number database optimistic forecasts for the end of 2024 did not come true, we never saw the cherished 4.5%, which is not surprising," notes bankruptcy expert Evgeniya Bodnar.
According to the expert, there will be a significant jump in inflation in January 2025. This is due to the indexation of tariffs, pensions, an increase in the recycling fee, the minimum wage and budget expenditures.
"An increase in the share of budget expenditures, and this, let me remind you, is the main reason for the growth of the money supply in circulation (after all, the more money there is, the cheaper it is), given the lack of domestic demand and growth in production (for several years now, growth has been provided only by military production) and the budget deficit this year, may increase inflationary pressure. As is known, where there is budget policy, there is tax policy: tax increases, plus a new progressive scale of personal income tax rates has been in effect since January 1 (and in addition to taxes, the amounts of various duties collected into the treasury have also increased since January 1) - all this will contribute to the acceleration of inflation, among other things," the expert comments.
In her opinion, the measures taken in particular by the Central Bank to tighten credit policy - restraining consumer demand by increasing the cost of loans - will make themselves felt, but closer to spring. Perhaps this will slow down inflation a little, but at the same time we should not forget about the negative impact of such measures (increasing the key rate) on business and economic development in general.