How will the closure of most programs affect the market?

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Preferential programs have led to a gap in prices between primary and secondary housing of up to 40%, noted Irina Nosova, Senior Director of the Financial Institutions Ratings Group at ACRA. In her opinion, their termination (except for family ones) will serve as a certain correction of real estate prices due to a decrease in demand.

At the same time, a key lebanon whatsapp resource rate above 12% can be considered effectively prohibitive for mortgage clients, emphasized Vitaly Kostyukevich, Director of the Retail Business Department of Absolut Bank. This is reflected in the business of developers. At the same time, in his opinion, the construction sector plays an important role in the economy and affects output and employment in related industries. Its interests also need to be taken into account.

The effect of preferential programs should be maintained at least until the key rate is reduced to 10%, the expert believes. If they are curtailed earlier, this will lead to a decline in the mortgage market and an expansion of undesirable practices in issuing housing loans.

In addition, it is not necessary to close all preferential programs, except for the family one, noted Nikita Kulagin, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Sovcombank. According to him, the program for new buildings can be extended, making it more targeted. And also, special conditions for IT specialists, residents of the Far East, the Arctic, and military personnel can be preserved.

The market should return to its natural development, VTB believes. However, for this purpose, it is possible to switch to targeted assistance to certain categories of the population - for example, doctors, teachers, large families. Another vector could be support for private construction and regions where the rate of new housing commissioning is still insufficient, the bank believes.

The growth of the mortgage portfolio in January-February of this year has already slowed down, said Dmitry Gritskevich, manager of banking and financial markets analysis at PSB. He emphasized that this corresponds to the Central Bank's expectations for the market to cool. At the same time, as the key rate decreases, the share of loans issued under preferential terms in the primary sector will also fall, the expert expects. The figure may reach 25% no earlier than the second half of 2025.

At the same time, in addition to the cancellation of a number of preferential programs in July 2024, quantitative restrictions on mortgage issuance are also expected to be introduced soon, recalled Ivan Uklein, Senior Director of Bank Ratings at Expert RA. The Central Bank has repeatedly stated this. It is likely that they will start by cutting the share of loans with a low down payment and a high debt burden ratio (when the borrower spends a significant part of their income on debt repayment).

In the last months of the preferential programs, the demand for them will grow, because hesitant consumers will try to "jump on the last train," believes the general director of the investment company in the real estate market OOO "Flip" Evgeny Shavnev. In his opinion, not all state programs will be curtailed. Regions with particular overheating may be left without them, but special conditions will be offered, for example, by developers.

The best option would be to create a balance so that preferential mortgages are not the only option for purchasing housing, but are on a par with other tools for purchasing real estate, the expert concluded.